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Beyond detente :: prospects for east-west co-operation and security in Europe
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1, Although the current disruptions in international life are likely to result in fluctuations in the degree of tension in East-West relations, the durability of the détente appears rooted in “objective factors” in both East and West. Whether the outcome of the mixture of competition and limited cooperation will work to the advantage of one side or the other will depend upon each side’s ability to manage its strengths and weaknesses; in particular, in the ability of the fragmented West to co-ordinate its policies on the basis of a common appreciation of the nature of the possibilities and limitations of a détente relationship with the East.
2. The central purpose of the present stage of détente relations should be to reduce the danger of war by constraining the strategic and conventional military competition, and by working toward a codification of the restraints to be expected of both sides in the continuing political competition. To this point, the détente has not resulted in substantial progress in this central purpose, which should correspond to the objective interests of both East and West. The development of new strategic weapons has outrun the pace of US—Soviet strategic arms negotiations; the prospect of widespread nuclear proliferation is a source of increasing danger to the world; and the competition in conventional weapons, and in the technical improvement of conventional weapons, has increased the danger of local conflicts which may not remain localized. In this essential respect, therefore the reduction of the atmosphere of tension in East-West relations has not yet effectively reduced the danger of war.
3. East-West relations have become a less central and less dominant factor in international politics than they appeared to be a decade ago. The rise of domestic preoccupations with social and political transformations of industrial societies; the development of intra-Western economic conflicts; and the prospect of growing North-South tensions are factors of increasing importance in the contemporary international political situation. An appreciation of the rapid transformations in international politics now in process points beyond present arms control efforts as a means of strengthening international security to the necessity for checking present tendencies toward the disintegration of the international system into violence and anarchy. In the first instance, this requires a greater harmonization of economic and social relations among countries that share essential democratic values. Only if this effort is reasonably successful is there a likelihood that the détente will evolve beyond its present limited stage, and that future leaders of the Soviet Union will see their self-interest in participating constructively in a relationship that is more than a detente,
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