Teks
Population and history
Population characteristics
When Kant wished to illustrate the notion that even histor events Whose occurrence seems quite random and unpredicta, may in the mass show notable regularities, he turned to population. Whereas it would be hazardous indeed to predict the day any one man’s death, or the date of a young girl’s marriage and, dates on which she will give birth to children, for any thousand p, or young girls much more confident predictions can be made. studying the characteristics of large populations patterns are foung Women are not equally likely to marry at all ages: nor are me, equally likely to die at all times of life.
Some of the regularities which are revealed by the study of populations are found in all societies and persist even iN Case, which at first sight seem very different. For example, it is probably true of all societies that the first few hours of a baby’s life are those in which the risk of death is greatest, that the risk declines from birth, rapidly at first and then very slowly, to reach a minimum usually in the early teens. Thereafter the danger of dying for each unit of time lived rises with increasing rapidity as the years pass, The shape, therefore, of any one schedule of mortality by age will have much in common with any other, though its level may be such as to mean an expectation of life at birth as low as 20 years or as high as 75 (see figure 1-1). ..
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